After a fabulous day at the beach, I stopped by an old friend's for dinner. It was a gourmet affair of pizza and beer. Basic, tasty stuff. I didn't expect an "I wonder" moment, but then again how often can I predict those?
While chomping on the last pieces of pizza, my dear friend asked me whether she was wasting money by backing up her digital photos on to DVDs, "I mean, c'mon, they'll be obsolete eventually." I reassured her by replying, "It's ok. Look, I've still got two working VCRs in my house." She laughed because she also has two VCRs in operation to this day.
Which gets me to a bigger question: I wonder how long technology transitions truly take. It seems we measure by varying means. First, there's the hullabaloo in the press about the next big thing. Some time later, sales actually flip from the old to the new. Finally, and perhaps not so well tracked, people actually stop using the old. But this final step takes a good long while in many categories.
Looking forward into digital film delivery, it seems we're in for a massive switch in how movies are distributed to consumers over the next several years. Clear consensus exists on this point, although the timing question is being hotly debated. I wonder, however, how long DVDs will still be a handy option for the majority of consumers. Seems like it'll take a while, especially given my pizza time conversation tonight. What do you think?
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